clawsfour

Can Labour emulate Tories' 1992 victory?

Well yes, obviously.

But here is a nice piece by Will Woodward, the Guardian's Head of Politics, which poses the question quite neatly. And points to a possible answer.

Clear red water

Well if anyone thought the Pre-Budget report was going to be the usual, slightly pointless, Pre-Christmas report about the state of the economy then a quick glance along the newspaper shelves this morning will disabuse you.

The right wing media are mourning the death of new Labour (didn't care much for new Labour previously, I seem to remember) and pointing to a Britain on the edge of bankruptcy. The centre ground cautiously suggest a brave move (although most reserve their positon to change this to a foolhardy move if it all goes wrong). And the left media........ oh, I forgot.

What is certain is that there is now the sharpest political divide since Cameron tried to rest the centre ground from Labour by claiming the inheritance to Tony Blair. Rather than being swept into insignificance by accepting the need to support the government when the country is facing economic difficulties, Cameron has gone for the high risk separation. The Tories have set their stall out against  the economic package announced yesterday in a very stark way. The clash between a government which believes intervention is necessary to help stimulate the economy and an opposition which will leave everything to the markets (just remember the last time they did that) could not be more clear.

And the game is now on for the General Election. if the measure announced by the Chancellor gain some traction in the next 12 months, then labour will be home and hosed. If they fail, then Gordon Brown will have gift-wrapped an electoral advantage to the Tories.

Labour can win

And if it's in the Torygraph it must be true.

Although to be fair, as they say in the best football commentaries, it was written by Douglas Alexander - sometimes in charge of Labour's election campaigns. Sometimes not. Even when he is.

Anyhow, I don't often read the Torygraph. And for those of the rest of the world who don't either here is what DA had to say.

Let's be honest, neither David Cameron nor Gordon Brown are instantly recognisable as a British Barack Obama. There haven't been goat herders in Surrey or Fife for a long time. Yet last week's victory was not simply a victory for an extraordinary individual; it was also a victory for a body of ideas. As the Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman observes: "This year's presidential election was a clear referendum on political philosophies - and the progressive philosophy won."
At the core of Obama's campaign was a belief that only progressive politics had the answers to the challenges of the time. Relentlessly, he made the case for government action in responding to the problems faced in the economy, in energy and environment policy, in education and in healthcare.

No going back

The Labour Party needs to urgently fill the vacuum of not having a Labour candidate for Mayor of London.  

That vacuum is being, not filled, but highlighted by the launch of Livingstone's ludicrous campaign to be reselected. Having almost single-handedly lost the last election he now wants to ensure Boris has the easiest ride to a second term. 

Livingstone would do better to heed the tone and message of the defeated US candidate John McCain. If he doesn't stand aside gracefully to allow the considered selection of a new candidate, the Labour Party should once again sweep him aside and start the process now of selecting the best woman or man to take on Boris (and the bitteratti).

Getting pumped up

The real scandal about George Osborne, Shadow Chancellor, is not that whether he did or didn't solicit a donation from an impermissible donor - although his own admissions seem to bring the decision down on the did rather than didn't side of the fence - but his scandalous economic policies.

George Osborne says "high petrol prices are a scandal". But what the Tory hypocrite in waiting doesn't say is that he wants to pump up the prices at the pump himself.

The real question Osborne and Cameron should be answering is not "Why are you touching up Russian oligarchs for cash? Has Lord Overseas Ashcroft run out of money?" but "WHY DO YOU WANT TO PUT 5P TAX ON UNLEADED PETROL TODAY?"

With BP anouncing profits of £70m PER HOUR, it is mind-blowing that the Tories want to squeeze the ordinary hard-working families with this new Tory Tax.

Cameron's (oil)slick PR machine thought a green tax would win headlines but it would in fact add millions of pounds to British families’ tax bills because of changing oil prices. If Mondeo man is still the person politicians want to win over to win elections, then Cameron and Osborne may want to explain why Mondeo Man will be paying £3.50 a tank more at the pump under the Tories.

As the Labour Party say, "When times are tough and people are worried about their cost of living, this just shows the risk of putting a headline-seeking novice in charge".

Face-off in the States

As the polls in the States close again, the Republicans have unleashed a (they thought) powerful attack site against Barack Obama.

Modeled on Facebook, BarackBook shows a whole range of 'friends' of the Democrat candidate and seeks to damn him by association. The site itself is a pretty poor parody of Facebook, and as an amteur production makes the Republican use of the net seem, well, amateur. Even worse for McCain, the offical facebook application which points to BarackBook has been over-run by Democrats.

BarackBook is, however, a one-stop shop for the major Republican attack videos. Once people have got over  wetting themselves with laughter at the ineptitude of the McCain geeks, those pages may gain some traction. Although this attack site isn't landing punhes yet, it's still in the ring.

A wee message

Gordon Brown will still be Prime Minister when the by-election result in Glasgow East is declared in an hour or so's time.

People at the count are now predicting an SNP win by 1,000 or more. This will be a very serious set back but it was a campaign based solely on the SNP saying let's send a wee message to Gordon Brown. It looks clear that the message will be sent.

The main thing now will be how Labour responds.

If it is yet another series of policy announcements then the message won't have been understood. What is required is not yet more policy but current policy effectively delivered. On top of that a clear statement of Labour values - maybe by way of a little pledge card.

And someone needs to get a grip of the narrative coming from Labour. Where the hell is is Ali Campbell?

Alex Salmond must be furious at Mason gaffe

News from the Glasgow Campaign reveals that the SNP candidate has called on Margaret Curran to say she'll resign her position as an MSP

Responding to the calls from the SNP's candidate, Councillor Mason, Labour MP David Cairns said:

“Alex Salmond must be furious at Councillor Mason’s latest blunder. This is breathtaking hypocrisy from the nationalists. Will Councillor Mason be calling on Alex Salmond to resign his seat as the MSP for Gordon so he can provide a strong voice in Westminister for Banff and Buchan?

“Margaret is a phenomenally gutsy woman and will be a full-time fighter for the East End. She will be fighting full-time on the issues that really matter: crime, jobs and regeneration.”

A spokesperson from the Scottish Labour Party said:

“Margaret has already made her position very clear. She is taking nothing for granted because she respects the people of the East End. If she wins this by-election, she will become the MP for Glasgow East. She will continue for a period as the MSP for Glasgow Baillieston, which is entirely contained in Glasgow East. She will draw only one salary and, unlike the First Minister, will operate only one constituency office. She will decide when to relinquish her duties as the MSP when she has discussed it with the local party and the wider community.“

Glasgow East springboard to victory

With the speculation that Margaret Curran may now emerge as the Labour candidate for the Glasgow East by-election, the Labour Party may have found itself (by accident admittedly) in the best position to win this seat and go into the summer with a real opportunity to rebuild around values.

Margaret is a well respected Scottish politician and friends at the campaign tell me that the events of the last couple have days have boosted activism and response levels on the doorstep.

If Labour do win, as they should, following the humiliating experience for the Tories over the Haltenprice election then a period of calm should allow a re-energized Party to look forward to the conference season.

And that should be based on re-establishing Labour as the party with the values which reflect those of the majority in Britain. Labour came to power in 1997 with a vision to change Britain. Today we can see many of those changes irrevocably in place.

In 1997 the Tories were threatening to dismantle the NHS. Today no party can go into a general election without trying to demonstrate support for the NHS.

In 1997 the Tories were dismissive of child poverty as a real phenomenum in this country. Today no party can contest a general election without describing in detail their objectives in alleviating child poverty.

In 1997 the Tories said the minimum wage would lose thousands of jobs. Today no party can dismiss the rights of workers to a decent living wage.

We need to get away from detailed policy announcements and back to the big themes which will form the basis of the debate leading to the next election. Food and fuel poverty, climate change and international security.

Tories get lost

Sorry that should really say Tory gets lost - but hey ho!

On her web-site Conservative Candidate for Glasgow East Davena Rankin is captioned as "Davena is a well known local campaigner in Glasgow."

Unfortunately according to the leaflet she is delivering she appears to be campaigning in Cathcart.

Glasgow, yes. Just the wrong constituency. Oops.